p!=t, i.e. plausible != true

Conspiracy theory cat.jpg
Just because something is plausible, doesn't make it true. 

  • News. X happened and reporting says it happened because of Y & Z with seemingly no data to back it up.

  • Finance. Some market does X because of some other event Y, or not.

  • Science. Study shows X but headline and reporting around it extrapolate to Y & Z.

  • Conspiracies. No example needed :)

  • Startups. Perhaps most close to home...awesome product idea X is going to make a killing in niche Y because of Z, but no one has talked to any customers yet. 
etc. etc. 

tl;dr comments really bother me when they don't have a useful summary attached to them. I don't think I'd have a problem seeing p!=t comments, however. 

Long articles are, well, long. But p!=t articles are dangerous, and even if they have kernels of truth in them, I think they do more harm than good.

I have nothing particularly against probabilistic decision trees and scenario planning, but it should be highlighted where you go from fact to speculation, and to what degree that speculation is probable or not.



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